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Updated: 08/03/2008 | 09:42 AM IST
Is it time to buy?
Dinesh Thakkar
Saturday, March 08, 2008 (Mumbai)
Comments:
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This question may come as a surprise, but I believe yes! This is the right time to build your lifetime portfolio. Remember the sage advice from our market’s experienced and successful players: “Tops are made in exuberant times; conversely, bottoms are made in turbulent times.” I am sure we are near the bottom, but in our market it is difficult, if not impossible, to predict with 100% accuracy where the market will go in next few days or weeks. But the fundamentals of our market are suggesting an upswing in the near future. Firstly, it is the first time in a long period that the Sensex’s yield is approaching the yield of bank deposits i.e. 7%.(post taxes).

Second, and, one of the most important factors, is that leveraged positions are at a minimum. Third, the degree of risk aversion is high, hence the low volumes at lower prices.

Finally, the budget, which is perceived populist will actually boost consumption, hence it will benefit corporate earnings.

Durable investors are advised to start the process of buying in this ensuing correction. I feel the Sensex at 15,500-16,000 is worth buying, but this does not guarantee immediate appreciation or experiencing the pain of the market going to still lower levels.

This may happen; no one can predict the exact bottom or the time of reversal. Having said this, I feel the risk-reward ratio is skewed in favor of the buyer, and that the real risk at these levels is minimal, although the perception in the market may be otherwise. This is one more factor that points towards a bottom formation i.e. the real risk is far less than the perceived risk, exactly the reverse of the feeling we had at the top few weeks ago.

I would recommend traders stay away from trading for the very same reason, as you would be tempted to go short, and may even be successful on one or two more occasions. However, the day the markets reverse will not only wipe out all your gains, but will also leave you with short positions in appreciating markets and incite a bearish mindset in you. Hence, wait for the markets to turn and be on the long side”.

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