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Updated: 15/04/2008 | 03:15 PM IST
Markets shrug off inflation woes
Deven Shah
Tuesday, April 15, 2008 (Mumbai)
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Markets remained volatile with the broader indices trading in a range. BSE Sensex remained range-bound between 15,800 – 15,400 levels while the Nifty’s range was between 4,800 – 4,650 levels.

It was an alternative cycle with the indices gaining on one day and ending up losing the very next day. Inflation numbers once again played spoilsport climbing to a 3-year high at 7.41 per cent as food and steel prices continued to gain strength.

However, strong IIP numbers (IIP numbers for February were higher at 8.6 per cent against 5.3 per cent) helped the markets negate the inflation factor, managing to post a weekly gain with the benchmark index gaining over 3 per cent or 465 points to close at 15,805 levels. Nifty ended higher by 2.8 per cent or 131 points at 4,778 levels.

FII remained net sellers for the last week with Rs 163.40 crore in the equity segment while the derivatives segment attracted net inflows of Rs 1834.30 crore. Domestic institutions were net buyers of Rs 907 crore in the last week.

Crude prices hit the $100 mark once again but recovered towards the end of the week back to $106 mark.

World markets

 

Gains were registered by most of the Asian markets on speculation that consumer spending in the US would increase.

Hang Seng, Nikkei and Shanghai ended higher. Dow Jones and Nasdaq lost around 2 per cent each following a weak outlook from GE and rising crude prices. Europe too ended on a weak note.

Sectoral indices

Most of the BSE sectoral indices managed to clock weekly gains with the oil & gas index outperforming its other peers. The oil & gas index gained 7.3 per cent led by RIL , Cairn, Essar Oil.

Capital goods stocks which have been hammered after the weak IIP data were seen rising with the capital goods index gaining over 5 per cent with BHEL and L&T leading from the front.

Value buying was seen in power, banking and metals too. Reality took a hit of 2 per cent as inflation continued to rise and IT too lost marginally ahead of the Infosys results.

Reliance was the top contributor surging by over 9 per cent for the week followed by BHEL and Tata power which managed to gain over 11 per cent each. Infosys lost 4 per cent ahead of its Q4 numbers.

Mid-cap action

 

Mid-caps and small-caps returned to the bourses with mid-cap IT and oil stocks racing accompanied with heavy volumes. Both the indices gained over 4 per cent for the week.

Mid-cap IT stocks were in action with stocks like Sasken Communication, 3i Infotech, Aftek Infosys gaining on speculation of promoters wanting to increase their stakes to prevent a possible takeover.

Orchid Chemicals continued its upward march gaining 40 per cent for the week after Soltrex (a Ranbaxy group company) further increased its stake in the company by 1 per cent.

Low promoter stake in the company was the major reason for the stock to gain over 130 per cent in the last 20 days. Indiabulls, Hind Oil, S Kumars, NIIT Tech were some of the other prominent gainers in the mid-cap space.

 

Markets range-bound

 

Markets managed to clock gains over last week on strong IIP numbers for February even after inflation hit a 3-year high at 7.41 per cent. Government continued to take necessary steps to control the rising inflation banning steel and cement exports.

Next week would be a holiday-curtailed week with the markets opening only for three trading sessions. Markets are likely to be volatile and once again range bound.

The levels of 4,650-4,660 are important support levels below which markets could move to 4,600 levels. On the higher side, 4,825-4,850 is the resistance levels and only a move above these levels could see the markets gain positive momentum.

Once again, I would like to emphasise that technical indicators do suggest that downsides are limited. Expect stock and sector specific movements. Oil remains to be an outperformer.
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