In some ways, this is an understated budget. It delivers more than what is apparent. The talk of 9 per cent growth is a big theme. But somehow the markets have got lost in the details and have not read this bold big picture. All policy initiatives, whether FDI, FII, or divestments, though not elaborated right now, will align with it.
One significant theme the minister has so well articulated is that growth sets the stage for social schemes, as it generates resources and taxes for these programs. This is very true. A decade ago India could not have imagined rolling out NREGA. Today we can. True, the budget has focused on social schemes - NREGA investment is up a huge 44 per cent to Rs 39,000 cr. Yet, the underlying theme is very much growth.
On taxes, the simplicity of the approach is endearing. The FM has talked of stable tax rates, and that are simple to administer. Though the market started coming off once it was announced that there were no reductions in corporate tax, there was actually little hope for cuts this year considering the fiscal situation. In fact, to leave taxes untouched, and yet provide so much for social welfare is a big achievement. It’s pragmatic and reasonable.
One wish, though, is to take taxes progressively down by 2 per cent all the way to 20 per cent over possible six to eight years. This may look difficult now, but many micro industries, whose entire chain works in cash, may start paying taxes, and this may well offset the loss of income. This will directly add to official GDP numbers, will strengthen the balance sheets of those companies and help them leverage to grow. More so, this will help global investments, as it will make India more competitive in terms of return on their equities.
Many observers may have expressed discomfort that the fiscal deficit is high. In fact, contrary to expectations, the fiscal stimuli on customs and excise continue. But this is actually a great decision, as growth will bring in taxes to address the fiscal deficit. Higher growth and buoyant stock markets will help divestments, and all this can address fiscal deficit. It can be noticed that the finance minister is taking the fiscal deficit seriously. It’s only that his prescription is one founded on growth.