India, the world's biggest gold consumer, is celebrating Akshaya Tritiya on Monday, considered to be an auspicious day for buying precious metals in the Hindu culture. While, most households will queue up to buy some jewellery on May 13, investors in gold are likely to stay away with the yellow metal on track to end its 12-year bull run.
Here are 10 reasons why you should not buy gold this Akshaya Tritiya.
- Gold prices have slipped almost 15 per cent so far this year, having posted annual gains in the past 12 consecutive years as easy monetary policy prompted investors to buy the precious metal to hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties.
- Gold is in bear territory: Gold has broken the key support at $1,445 and $1,440 an ounce and continues to be in an upward correction phase. For it to go into the bull territory, it needs to break $1,530 - $1,590 levels.
- Strong dollar: Gold prices fell for the first time in three weeks as strong jobs data in the United States hurt its appeal as an alternative investment. Gold prices have come under renewed selling pressure tracking gains in the U.S. dollar and rising equity markets.
- ETF redemption: The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, has reported 22 per cent fall in assets in 2013. Holdings have hit the lowest since August 2009.
- Recovery in equities: The fall in gold prices has been accompanied by gains in other riskier asset classes such as equities. Indian stock markets are at a 28-month high, while the U.S. markets have been making record highs on a daily basis. European shares have also hit five-year highs, clearly indicating a shift in risk appetite.
- Recovery in economy: Most experts agree that the Indian economy is on course for a rebound after hitting decade low in the previous fiscal. Rising optimism over the U.S. recovery has also boosted the appeal of assets like stocks at gold's expense. (Also read: How buying gold affects the economy)
- Easy liquidity: The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programme, a major support to bullion in recent years, may come to an end as the U.S. economy starts to look up. "So far, the data seems to be improving, which suggests they're likely to take their foot off the pedal. That would argue for weaker gold," Credit Agricole analyst Robin Bhar says.
- Hedge funds ignore gold: The net long money held by hedge funds and other big speculators in commodities is back to a six-week high, but they have cut their exposure to gold as the outlook for precious metal remained fragile after the mid-April sell-off.
- Bearish forecasts: Deutsche Bank became the latest bank to cut its gold forecast on Friday, reducing its price view for the metal to $1,533 an ounce this year from $1,637 an ounce, and to $1,500 an ounce in 2014 from $1,810.
- Inflation hedge: Headline inflation in India has likely peaked off, making gold less attractive as an inflation hedge. Wholesale price inflation is expected to have risen 5.5 per cent on year in April, a Reuters poll shows, marking the slowest pace since November 2009. Core WPI is expected to have risen 3.5 per cent. (Also read: On Akshaya Tritiya, do you need to revisit your gold investment?)
Disclaimer: Some of the information is based on the buzz in the stock market and on secondary information. Readers should use discretion before using the information.